The laptop sector experienced significant growth in 2020, and this was even greater in 2021. That boom period with high demand for laptops will come to an end in 2022, since according to the latest TrendForce forecasts it is expected a drop of 23% compared to the previous year.
Doing numbers, this would imply that the total number of units supplied in 2022 would be 189.6 million laptopsa figure that I will remaina long way from the 246.1 million laptops that were supplied in 2021, and also below the 206.1 million units shipped in 2020. The drop would be so great that we would have a regression that would place us below the values recorded two years ago.
Bad forecasts, there is no doubt about that, but how does it look for 2023? Well, it doesn’t look good at all, and according to TrendForce a drop of 6.9% is expected compared to the results of 2022, which means that the total number of units supplied could fall to 176.6 million. It is important to keep in mind that this forecast is reliable, but it is not absolute and it could not be fulfilled.
The reason is very simple, and it is that we start from a basis focused on the current economic situation, with very high inflation, rising production costs and a war that continues to sow uncertainty in Europe, and which affects the international economy. However, there is a possibility that the situation will improve, and that the war will come to an end sometime next year. If this happens, we could enter a recovery phase that, in the end, would be positive for all markets, including the portable sector.
On the other hand, we must also bear in mind that during 2020 and 2021 there was abnormal growth in the wearable sector due to the incidence of the COVID-19 pandemic. For two years in a row, sales have shot up above what is reasonable, so it is normal that there is now a “corrective” drop.
TrendForce is convinced that gaming laptops and specific models for content creators will continue to be “money makers”, and that their sales will not be as affected as those of other laptops. Everything seems to indicate that a fairly tough 2023 awaits us, but we must approach it in a positive way, and that is that in the end the recovery stage is getting closer, and it should be quite marked.
