This year will be bad for the computer industry, with a drop in sales, but not as bad as 2022. Estimates say that 2023 will be the last in sales drop and by 2024 we will see a market recovery. A Yole Group study refutes this, stating that 2023 will be the year of SSD stock cleanup and? by 2028the sale of these storage units go up 35%.
To reiterate something that we have commented on in previous posts: this is due to the COVID-19 pandemic. After a strong renewal of systems due to teleworking, we are now in a process of normal sales decline. But this period ends this year, for next year the positive data should return.
Good growth for the next few years
The truth is that the study carried out by the Yole Group shows interesting data. The first piece of information that it gives us is that in 2021 more than 400 million SSDs were sold, but in 2022 the figure fell to 352 million units.
Unit sales for the past year are broken down. Of the 352 million unitsof which 55 million were for servers, data centers and the like, of which 30 million were M.2 PCIe SSDs. With respect to domestic market (or generalist) were sold 297 million units, of which 252 million were M.2 PCIe SSDs. We clearly see that SATA drives have lost a lot of strength in the market.
This study makes a forecast of 472 million SSDs sold, which is a 35% increase compared to 2022. It is estimated that the business SSD market will have total sales of 111 million units, of which 79 million will be M.2 PCIe SSDs. Regarding the domestic market, 361 million units sold are expected, of which 347 million will be M.2 PCIe SSDs.
There are more interesting facts, such as the version of the PCIe interface that these SSDs will use in 2028. For the server market, it is estimated that the 69% of SSDs sold will be PCIe 5.0Meanwhile he 16% will be PCIe 6.0. The figure in the market home user is very different, since the 12% of the SSDs sold will be PCIe 5.0 and only the 3% will be PCIe 6.0.
The data shows a utter failure of the PCIe 5.0 interfacesomething predictable. These units are presented as very expensive and problematic in terms of temperatures. Most of those that have been seen have a fan, due to thermal problems.
Who are the biggest SSD vendors?
Maybe this data does not seem entirely interesting to you, but it does give us a lot of information. The report reveals who divides the SSD market into two large groups: memory manufacturers that produce their own SSDs, and SSD manufacturers that rely on third-party memory.
Samsung, Kioxia (formerly Toshiba), Western Digital, Micron (under the Crucial trademark), SK Hynix, and SOLIDGIM make their own memory and SSDs. All these companies represent 82% of SSDs sold in 2022, a brutal figure. While Kingston, Corsair, ADATA, Seagate and other SSD manufacturers that rely on memory chips from the first mentioned companies, accounted for 18% of units sold in 2022.
The data is really spectacular and very relevant. We see that the SSD market is dependent on a very low number of companies that make memory chips. Specifically, we are talking about five companies, since SOLIDGIM is a recently created subsidiary of SK Hynix. This supposes an oligopoly of companies that can agree on prices, something that is suspected to have happened in the past.