Buy graphics cards from the end of 2020 so far It has not been an easy task, let alone economic. For more than a year we have seen a complete breakdown of stock, which “magically” translated in many cases into a notable increase in units on the resale market, of course with absolutely excessive prices, as we have been telling you over and over again. throughout this period of drought.
Throughout 2021, we heard the heads of the big technology companies affirm that 2022 would be the year of recovery, or at least the beginning of it, and the latest signs finally clearly point in this direction. A good trend that, however, would still have to be maintained for several months, since at present the difference between the prices recommended by manufacturers for their graphics cards and what we find on the market is still pronounced, about 50% more to be exact.
However, a tweet of the leaker Greymon55 points in a direction that may seem surprising, because according to it, graphics card prices could see a major drop next month. It does not quantify it, but if it qualifies as drastic, compared to the current situation, it could be pointing to the more than expected moment in which the price of graphics cards finally approaches the price recommended by their manufacturers.
It looks like GPU prices are going to drop dramatically next month. I hope that’s true.👀
— Greymon55 (@greymon55) February 20, 2022
Now, does this theory make sense? to rate it first We must take into account the factors that have caused the price of graphics cards to climb the Himalayas and, for more than a year and until recently, it has remained at the top. Although there are more factors, we can focus mainly on three:
- Rise of cryptocurrencies and, therefore, of their demand by miners.
- Shortage of chips and therefore graphics cards.
- Increase in the resale market.
Thus, to consider whether what Greymon55 indicates makes sense, what we must do is consider the current situation of each of these points.
Regarding the first, 2022 is not set to be a particularly good year for cryptocurrencies. We are talking about a market so volatile that it can undoubtedly surprise us by reaching new historical highs, but the panorama points to an increasingly regulated environment, and therefore reduces the margin of action of the people who operate with them. And if the interest in cryptocurrencies decreases, in an associated way the same will happen with graphics cards.
Regarding the shortage of chips, the problem is still present, but as the technology companies already predicted last year, the situation maintains a trend towards normalization in recent months, which means that manufacturers have more facilities to obtain the materials they need to produce more units and at a lower price, thus ending a problem that we already told you about a few months ago. Additionally, Intel’s arrival in the dedicated GPU market, with a forecast of four million Arc Alchemist graphics cards by 2022, clearly points to increasing availability.
And if we talk about resellers, we can say a lot of pretty nasty things about them, but they certainly are.are aware of the market situationand therefore they see how in recent weeks the situation is tending towards normalization, so that their business is less profitable with each passing day, and they can reach the point of finding themselves with graphics cards that they cannot sell, because under normal conditions the Users prefer to buy from trusted stores and distributors, rather than in this obscure secondary market.
So that, resellers may substantially decrease their purchases, since its purchasing capacity is limited, and can be seen to be exceeded by the production capacity of the manufacturers. And if we add to this that the purchase of graphics cards by miners also points towards a decrease, coinciding with a greater production capacity by manufacturers, what Greymon55 pointed out does make some sense.
However, the big question is whether the fall will be drastic, as we can read in his message, or if, on the contrary, we will see that the price decline accelerates compared to what has been seen in recent weeks, but in a more moderate way. What do you think will happen? Do you think that in a short time we will finally see that the graphics cards reach their recommended prices, that we will still have to wait a few months, or that for whatever reason, they will remain above them throughout 2022?
