As all hardware hobbyists know, the graphics card price has been on the rise for some time now, always motivated by a combination of scarcity (lack of stock and collection for mining) and speculation. However, the price of these much-needed devices has been gradually falling for a few months, and right now it is at the same level as it was 15 months ago, in January 2021… will it ever reach normalize again? When will we get to that point?
The report comes to us on this occasion from 3DCenter, who began to analyze the price of the graphics card market precisely in January 2021; this story began because of the increase in tariffs in the US, the sudden popularity of telecommuting due to the pandemic, and the increase in value of cryptocurrencies… a cluster of circumstances that, as you know, caused shortages in the market, and when there are scarcity speculators always arrive to get a slice.
The price of graphics cards, is it normalized?
As we said at the beginning, according to the source, the price of graphics cards continues to drop and is currently at the same level as in January 2021; Similarly, they indicate that the forecast is that the price will finally normalize, since there is more and more stock of graphics cards and prices are deflating. However, it must be taken into account that his market analysis focuses on stores in Germany and Austria, where, despite this, GeForce graphics RTX 30 NVIDIA series and RadeonRX6000 AMD series still have, on average, a 25% higher price to what they should be according to the manufacturer’s MSRP.
In the graph above you can see as an example the evolution of the price of the NVIDIA GeForce RTX 30 Series (green line) and AMD Radeon RX 6000 Series (red line), where in January 2021 the price was already 34% and 42% higher than it should. As of March 27, 2022, as you can see, the price of both brands is the same and is “only” 25% above the price suggested by the manufacturer.
In addition, a fact that can be clearly seen in the graph is that the trend in both brands is downward: since December of last year, when the price was around 187/183%, it has not stopped gradually falling month by month, and both lines have since gone down, marking the trend. Therefore, what we can expect from now on (given that the situation is not changing: there is more and more stock) is that the price of graphics cards will continue to drop until reaching a normalization situation.
Is it advisable to wait to buy a new graphics card?
If you were keeping an eye on the evolution of the market to find the right time to buy your next new graphics card, you will wonder when the time will come when you can do it at a reasonable price (at least at the manufacturer’s recommended retail price). As we have explained, this situation is expected to arrive soon, although logically we can’t know when.
If the market trend continues as it is now, falling between 20 and 15% per month, then in a couple of months we should reach the situation where the sale prices coincide with the price suggested by the manufacturer, and that would be the right time to buy a new graphics card without having to pay more and, in that case, we would really recommend you wait to do it.
However, as we have mentioned before, the market analysis has been carried out taking stores in Germany and Austria as a reference, and the evolution has not been the same in stores in Spain (however, in Spain we have Alternate, a German store that is governed by country prices). Nor can we guarantee that in two months the situation will return to normal, but there is no doubt that at least we are recovering the hope of being able to buy the graphics card we want and at a fair price very soon.