The UN Council for Trade and Development, known as UNCTAD for its acronym in English, has recently commented that it believes that the war in Ukraine will end up producing a rise in the price of computers and electronicsa fact that makes sense if we take into account the impact that this conflict could have in the world of semiconductors.
The source of this information, the well-known DigiTimes, has collected the specific details of this estimate from UNCTAD, and in theory we could find ourselves with an increase in the price of computers and electronics that would be around 11.4%. It is important to keep in mind that this figure has been obtained through simulation, and that it is impossible to predict the real impact that the war could have on the supply chain, and on the technology industry. By this I mean that this increase could end up being overcome.
It is important to note that the blockades of trade routes caused by the war, both by air and by land, are also beginning to have a noticeable impact on the supply chain. According to the report collected by DigiTimes, 1.5 million sea freight containers were shipped by rail from China to Europe, but the route they used was interrupted by the war. Shifting the cargo that this route entails to maritime transport would not be a solution, since it would increase the demand for this type of transport by between 5% and 8%, and this is already overloaded, which implies that their prices are very high.
Replacing those routes with air- or sea-centric alternatives is not something that can be done overnight, and nor does it have to be economically viable. For UNCTAD, this is, in short, the most important key behind its simulation of the increase in the price of computers and electronics.
In the attached image we can see an estimate of the price increase that could produce the warlike conflict that plagues Ukraine transferred to different products, such as textiles, plastic materials, electronic equipment, motor vehicles and machinery. The values that we see, and the forecasts that we have, are not at all rosy, unfortunately.