China maintains its zero covid policy with a firm hand, applying harsh measures to a population already saturated with restrictions and limits to its freedoms.
With the idea of protecting the population and minimizing the number of deaths (it is said that people’s lives come first, above the economy), social and economic stoppages continue in large areas, with prolonged quarantines and confinements, as well as as with “covid workers” in bio-suits, literally fighting to get people to comply.
Almost three years later, the restrictions remain
Now that three years have passed since the first cases in China (December 2019) and with most countries having relaxed or removed most of the restrictions (with the exception of seasonal surges), it is striking how China still they are applying a particularly restrictive policy.
Large areas of some capitals have been under severe lockdowns since early October. People are tired and frustrated and show their disagreement with the measures in various ways, from street protests, confrontations with covid workers or posts on social networks.
This type of behavior is striking in a society where the rules and protocols established by the government are normally strictly adhered to, and any attempt at rebellion is cut off firmly and quickly. In this scenario, seeing people fleeing their homes or workplaces, demonstrating against public employees or raising their voices publicly discussing the rules of the regime is a clear example of the social tension they are experiencing.
As if social exhaustion were not enough, some specific tragedies are serving as gasoline to fan the flame of indignation and make people question why such restrictive policies continue. The follow-up of some suicides is joined by cases such as that of the 3-year-old boy who died in Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu province, in the northeast of the country, due to a gas leak in an apartment complex. They were under lockdown and a family from the complex was poisoned by carbon monoxide. When the father went out to look for help, he had difficulties with the covid officials to leave the facilities, which delayed the arrival of help and led to the fatal outcome.
Stories like this are posted on social media with messages arguing that restrictions and economic slowdowns also kill people. Additionally, there is a suspicion that censorship is covering up other possible cases. In a society in which social networks are (at least) monitored, the information that is disclosed can be easily filtered, and, what is usual, deleted within a few hours of being published.
Beyond the social impacts
Is it possible that the restrictions are being as harmful to society and the economy as a possible scenario where a population subjected to mass vaccination lives with the virus?
This question is being asked from inside and outside of China. Excessive anti-covid policies may be making the opening of society to a ‘new normal’ more complex, as well as assuming a great economic cost.
Stock markets and Chinese markets suffer; Faced with some rumors indicating that less restrictive measures were approaching and some policies would be relaxed, there were upward movements in the Chinese stock markets and a timid recovery in the monetary price.
On the one hand, the prices of the shares of Chinese companies listed both on the domestic stock market and on foreign stock markets skyrocketed, with investors eager for any speculation that a change in the cycle could imply.
However, after the announcement at a press conference by the Chinese health authorities promising to maintain the zero-tolerance approach to infections, and after the start of the third term of Xi Jinping, who carries in his ideology a resounding support for restrictive policies, Disappointment spread both in society and in the economy and everything returned to normal levels.
On the other hand, in the foreign exchange market (Foreign Exchange – Forex), the yuan/dollar pair (CNY/USD) continued on the downward path that it has maintained throughout 2022, where it has fallen from 0.158 yuan per dollar of first of the year until 0.137 in October.
No major changes are expected in these protocols and policies after an important uptick in the number of infections was announced, probably due to the arrival of winter, and the first death from covid in the last six months.
