The firm TrendForce has updated its forecasts on the future of the DRAM price in the short term, and in general terms we see that the downward trend continues, although this time we have a more complete analysis, better broken down and deeperSo let’s go over it.
In the PC sector, the price of DRAM memory used in DDR4 modules is expected to drop between 15 and 20 percent, which will mean a significant cumulative drop since in the fourth quarter of 2022 the expected drop was between 13 and 18 percent. In the case of DDR5 memory, the drop will be between 18% and 23%.
If we look at the server sector, we have an expected drop of between 15 and 20 percent in the case of DDR4, and between 18 and 23 percent in the case of DDR5. The combined drop in both sectors it will be, joining DDR4 and DDR5, of between 15 and 20 percent.
We now jump to the mobile sector and find ourselves with also a downward forecast, but this time it would be between 10% and 15%. In the graphics sector, said drop would be between 18% and 23%, and in the general consumer market that forecast of between 18% and 23% is repeated.
Making a total balance, that is, based on all the data that we have seen, it is expected that the average drop in the price of DRAM memory will be between 13% and 18% in the first quarter of 2023. It is important to bear in mind that these data do not have to be fulfilled directly, but they do make sense and allow us to illustrate the short-term future of the sector in a fairly accurate way.
The main cause of this new downward trend in the price of DRAM is once again in the excess inventory that the big companies in the sector have, although a demand that has not yet taken off and that in the end makes it impossible to clean up stock in the short term must also be introduced into the equation. To try to resolve this situation, large manufacturers such as Micron, They are reducing production.
A recovery of the sector is not expected in the coming quarters, So except for surprise, it is very likely that almost all of 2023 will be marked by this downward trend in the price of DRAM memory.
